EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich predicts Sony’s console will surpass Microsoft’s system’s global installed base within two years.
The Xbox 360 may routinely sell tens of thousands of units more than the PlayStation 3 in the US, according to since-discontinued monthly sales figures provided by the NPD Group, but Sony’s console holds the edge in other regions across the globe. According to Microsoft’s and Sony’s most recent financial reports, PS3 unit sales continue to close the gap on the Xbox 360. Microsoft’s console holds a slim margin, despite its yearlong head start, with figures through September coming in at 44.6 million Xbox 360s to 41.6 million PS3s.
According to Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich, the Xbox 360’s sales lead over the PS3 will come to an end within two years. “Worldwide, Sony will eventually take the lead from Microsoft, likely by the end of 2012,” Divnich said as part of an interview with Industry Gamers. Divnich went on to note that Microsoft may retain its lead in North America, at least, indefinitely.
“North America is a tougher challenge, and as we have seen lately, Microsoft’s lead is widening,” he continued. “I don’t know if the PS3 will ever overtake the Xbox 360 in North America. Maybe 2014? 2016? We do know the PS3 has incredible long-term value as a Blu-ray player, much like the PlayStation 2 did as a DVD player. But with strong competition coming from the digital front, one has to wonder if the PS3 will receive long retail legs like its predecessor did.”
Regardless of which system outsells the other, Divnich emphasized that an installed base is only as good as the games that are being purchased for it.
“Unlike previous generations, I don’t foresee third place being a ‘doom and gloom’ scenario,” he said. “Even with it being in third place now, the PS3 is an incredibly healthy platform. It all comes down to the active installed base; a company can sell as many consoles as it wishes, but if consumers are not actively buying games, they are not part of the installed base’s economic ecosystem. The PS3 doesn’t have the same problem the GameCube had with its third place finish last generation.”
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